Now that the citizens of Iraq have demonstrated their enthusiasm for democracy, the issue now becomes the nature of the democracy they are likely to end up with.

Let us assume that the country rides the storm of violence and finds a constitutional settlement which is acceptable enough to all parties to avoid a breakdown into factionalism and potential Civil War. In other words, a workable democracy comes into being which to a realistic degree represents and reflects the wishes of the Iraqi electorate.

The next step represents the acid test of American good intentions. The initial premise for war was non-existent weapons of mass destruction. The goal of the peace has purportedly been the implementation of a representative democracy. However, true freedom and democracy implies the ability to make decisions independent of and, where appropriate, contrary to the wishes of Washington. The question is whether the US will keep its hands off.

Noam Chomsky illustrated the point well in a recent speech (audio here)

Let’s just imagine what the policies might be of an independent Iraq, independent, sovereign Iraq, let’s say more or less democratic, what are the policies likely to be?

Well there’s going to be a Shiite majority, so they’ll have some significant influence over policy. The first thing they’ll do is reestablish relations with Iran. Now they don’t particularly like Iran, but they don’t want to go to war with them so they’ll move toward what was happening already even under Saddam, that is, restoring some sort of friendly relations with Iran.

That’s the last thing the United States wants. It has worked very hard to try to isolate Iran. The next thing that might happen is that a Shiite-controlled, more or less democratic Iraq might stir up feelings in the Shiite areas of Saudi Arabia, which happen to be right nearby and which happen to be where all the oil is. So you might find what in Washington must be the ultimate nightmare—a Shiite region which controls most of the world’s oil and is independent. Furthermore, it is very likely that an independent, sovereign Iraq would try to take its natural place as a leading state in the Arab world, maybe the leading state. And you know that’s something that goes back to biblical times.

What does that mean? Well it means rearming, first of all. They have to confront the regional enemy. Now the regional enemy, overpowering enemy, is Israel. They’re going to have to rearm to confront Israel—which means probably developing weapons of mass destruction, just as a deterrent. So here’s the picture of what they must be dreaming about in Washington—and probably 10 Downing street in London—that here you might get a substantial Shiite majority rearming, developing weapons of mass destruction, to try to get rid of the U.S. outposts that are there to try to make sure that the U.S. controls most of the oil reserves of the world. Is Washington going to sit there and allow that? That’s kind of next to inconceivable.

For the American Right, the symbolic touchstone of freedom is the right to bear arms, the right to protect oneself against a sovereign power which may one day against their own interests. This is not, however, a freedom likely to be unconditionally granted to other nations which it liberates.

Chomsky's scenario does not strike me as particularly unrealistic given a truly free Iraq. There are many others equally unpalatable to Washington. Washington knows this of course, and that is why it is surely inconceivable that Iraq will truly be allowed to act freely. In the most blatant scenario, American troops and administrators will dig their heels in and keep pulling the strings in an overt manner. In the most likely one, Iraq will languish between a carefully concocted selection of American sticks and carrots in a similar manner to the multitude of other puppet states set up in the post-war era.

In any case, I feel that the best strategy for Iraq at the moment must be to do the right thing and work towards installing the democracy the country wants and needs. When a situation arises where the freely elected government of Iraq wishes to act in opposition to the US, let the world clearly see whether America is truly committed to freedom and democracy in the world.