Last week's general election lived up to the tough challenge of being just as dull as the preceding campaign. No party (outside of Northern Ireland) will be overly pleased or disappointed by the outcome.

Labour's declining majority was an inevitability which, ironically, will be seen positively by many Labour MP's and supporters as curbing the more outrageous schemes of their leaders. Conservatives were well aware of the fact that only a miracle could deliver them a victory, and in spite of a well orchestrated series of leaks of documents designed to embarrass the government, they ended up with only modest gains. The result will be viewed by most Tories with immediate disappointment by with an aftertaste of pragmatic optimism, in that the result at least puts them within range of Labour next time around. Liberal Democrats will celebrate their increase in seats, but will also ponder over a missed opportunity to exploit more fully the one-off potential for Labour defections in protest over the government's support for the War in Iraq.

It is a clear sign of the lack of enthusiasm on all sides that much post-election speculation concerns what will happen at the next election rather than in the next term. The reduced authority of Labour will now hamstring radical policies such as the introduction of compulsory ID cards and further constitutional changes. It is also highly unlikely that Parliament would support a further military campaign in the Middle East against Iran or Syria, for example. It is expected, therefore, that the Government will concentrate more on more traditional Labour areas of interest, such as public sector initiatives. The most important issues in maintaining Labour's electability are the continued success of the economy, control of taxation, and navigating a careful passage through the tricky area of pensions reform.

We can also expect to see three different leaders at the next election. Michael Howard has already announced that he will step down in the near future to be replaced presumably by one of the new generation, probably David Davies or Liam Fox I would think. Tony Blair will almost certainly step down in the next year or two to give Gordon Brown enough time to get his feet under the desk in advance of the next election campaign. I would also think that the Liberal Democrats will take it upon themselves to find an alternative to the affable but ultimately insipid Charles Kennedy.

So, I think we can expect a Labour third term dogged with the problems typically (but perhaps not currently) associated with American Presidents' second terms. Blair and Brown will find it difficult to push through a radical agenda. The end result will be that the success of the Government may well be determined by outside events, such as the continued avoidance of terrorist attacks on British soil and global economic stability. As long as people don't feel too threatened by global terror, perceive that their pockets are not being unduly picked in the process of improving public services, if the housing market stabilises and interest rates remain under control, then the more restrained nature of the Government may make them more electable next time around.

At the same time the Conservatives need to find a leader who can steer them on a more independent and compelling course than that pursued by recent incumbents without lurching obnoxiously further to the right. Perhaps they could encourage apathetic younger people to mobilise behind their cause - where the US had South Park Republicans, could we see Busted Conservatives? Oh well, perhaps not. The Conservative problem is a tough one to crack, and perhaps their best hope is that Labour failures will open the door for them.

In any case, a more balanced Parliament will hopefully bring more sensible, well-thought out legislation than that passed in the previous term, and we can look forward to a real battle next time round.