I was just listening to The News Quiz on Radio 4. Never has it been so painfully clear that a topical news show has been recorded a day in advance. In the 24 hours between recording and going to air the PM has announced a heart condition, had an operation and returned home, declared his intention to serve another full term, while the rival Conservatives became the first major party to finish outside the Top 3 in a by-election since 1945.The story with most long-term impact I suppose is Blair's revelation of his plans to potentially stay put for another five years. It would be interesting to know how long Gordon Brown has known about this, the speculation about their relationship being the hacks' favourite story in Westminster. I was amused to hear that those in Downing Street refer to their stormy rows as the 'teebiegeebies' or even 'ten-eleven'. Brown's odds as next Labour leader have been slashed to 3/1 on from 6/4, but I imagine this is more because of the lack of visibility of up and coming contenders who now have a few years to plot their challenge.Equally astounding (and much more amusing) is the plight of the hapless Tories, not able even to beat the UK Independence Party in the Hartlepool by-election. Michael Howard's attempt to lurch to the right, angling for a bigger slice of the bigot vote appears to have been treated with the contempt it deserved. Maybe Tories will learn the lesson that those with half a mind to vote UKIP are using their entire mental capacity on the exercise.It leads one to speculate what will happen if the Tories go into the next election with a hard right manifesto and lose badly, and UKIP do well. Could this not lead to a schism, with the Kenneth Clarkes of the party going one way in the search of middle ground credibility, while the hardliners split off into some kind of super-UKIP? If so, would we be left with a Liberal opposition, or three parties vying for the scraps?